US Dollar Index

On Thursday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered slightly above the 103 level, following a cumulative gain of over 1% across the previous two trading sessions—a surge that pushed it to its highest level since April 2025. This rally has been fueled by growing market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. October inflation data, which came in higher than anticipated, combined with increasingly hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials, has provided strong support for the dollar. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned that a 50-basis-point rate hike might be necessary in December, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan signaled support for at least two additional 25-basis-point hikes to combat persistent inflationary pressures. Currently, the market assigns a roughly 91% probability to a rate hike next month, with investors also factoring in the possibility of further policy tightening in January—and potentially even April. Market attention has now shifted to Thursday’s releases of initial jobless claims and existing home sales data, which will offer further insight into inflation trends, labor market conditions, and the broader economic outlook.

Recent developments have dampened hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict, serving as an additional catalyst for the safe-haven US dollar and suggesting that the path of least resistance for the DXY remains to the upside. Traders are now closely monitoring commentary from influential FOMC members, as well as unfolding geopolitical headlines, which are likely to provide fresh momentum for the index. After breaking through the 102.40–102.50 resistance zone in the previous session, the DXY pushed above the 103 mark on Thursday; the short-term outlook remains bullish. Furthermore, the spot price is holding firmly above the 102.80 level—the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart—reinforcing a positive tone that points toward the 103.50 and 104.00 levels. Meanwhile, any meaningful pullback is likely to find initial support near the 5-day moving average at 102.42; should a deeper retracement occur, buyers are expected to defend the broader uptrend near the 102.00 level.

Consider shorting the USD at 103.30 today; stop-loss: 103.40; targets: 102.90, 102.80.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar has stabilized below $0.69, having fallen to its lowest level since late January, pressured by weak domestic economic data and a strengthening US dollar. Consumer confidence in November dropped to a four-year low, while business conditions remained in negative territory—a situation not seen in six years—reflecting growing caution regarding the domestic economic outlook. These figures reinforce the market consensus that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has concluded its current tightening cycle, following five interest rate hikes this year that pushed the cash rate to an 18-year high of 4.85%. The market currently assigns an 82% probability that interest rates have peaked and has fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of 2027. In contrast, higher-than-expected US inflation data, combined with hawkish remarks from several Federal Reserve officials expressing concern over persistent inflation, has led the market to increase bets on a substantial 50-basis-point rate hike in December, driving the US dollar to a one-month high.

On the daily chart, AUD/USD is trading below 0.681, maintaining a short-term bearish bias. The spot price remains well below the 9-day simple moving average (near 0.6917) and several former uptrend lines, which have now turned into overhead resistance. The breakdown below the most recent uptrend support line—now acting as resistance near 0.6926—highlights persistent downward pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14) sits at approximately 35; this indicates weak momentum without yet reaching oversold territory, suggesting that as long as the price fails to reclaim these broken structural levels, sellers will remain in control. On the upside, initial resistance lies near the previous uptrend line at 0.6926 and the 9-day simple moving average at 0.6917, followed by the area around 0.6970 (the middle line of the Bollinger Band). A daily close above this range would help alleviate current bearish pressure and pave the way for further gains. On the downside, the first level of support is at the 0.6800 psychological mark; however, clear structural support does not emerge until 0.6753 (the low from January 22). Consequently, as long as the price remains suppressed by the aforementioned cluster of resistance, the pair faces the risk of a continued, gradual decline.

For today, one might consider going long on the AUD at 0.6800, with a stop-loss at 0.6790 and targets at 0.6850 and 0.6860.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair saw a significant decline on Wednesday, falling below the 1.3300 psychological level and hitting a four-week low. This sharp pullback in the pound against the dollar occurred amid a broader strengthening of the greenback, fueled by hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and U.S. inflation data that came in stronger than expected. The pound fell below the $1.34 mark as the dollar gained momentum—a trend supported by Waller’s hints at potential further interest rate hikes and U.S. October consumer price data that exceeded forecasts. Meanwhile, Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli suggested that further monetary policy tightening might be necessary, warning that the UK’s labor market—characterized by low hiring and low layoff rates—could make it more difficult to ease wage pressures. She indicated that additional rate hikes could be on the horizon unless there is clearer evidence that inflationary pressures are subsiding. Investors are now looking ahead to the UK’s third-quarter GDP report, due on Thursday, with economic growth projected at 0.7%. On the daily chart, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3250, remaining under pressure in the near term. The spot price sits below a tight cluster formed by the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The pair is hovering above a support zone defined by a descending trendline near the 1.3375–1.3226 range, suggesting consolidation within a broader corrective downtrend. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 49, indicating neutral momentum that is stabilizing rather than signaling a clear shift toward a bullish outlook. On the upside, initial resistance lies near the 100-day SMA at 1.3397 and the 1.3400 psychological level, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.3417. A sustained breakout above these levels would be required to alleviate current downward pressure and open the door for further gains. On the downside, immediate support is found at the 1.3220 level (the low from earlier this week), with additional trendline support near 1.3226. A decisive break below this area would reinforce the bearish bias, potentially pushing the pair toward 1.3150 and exposing it to deeper losses.

Consider going long on GBP/USD at 1.3230; Stop-loss: 1.3220; Targets: 1.3270, 1.3280.

USD/JPY

On Thursday, the Japanese yen hovered near the key psychological level of 160 against the US dollar. Having declined for two consecutive sessions to reach its lowest level in over two months, the yen’s weakness has fueled speculation regarding potential foreign exchange intervention. The yen’s decline has been driven by broad US dollar strength; higher-than-expected US inflation data, combined with increasingly hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials, has heightened market expectations for a more aggressive pace of interest rate hikes by the Fed. Currently, the market assigns a probability of approximately 91% to a Federal Reserve rate hike next month, with further hikes also being considered for January and April of next year. Meanwhile, domestic data from Japan shows that producer prices rose by 7.1% year-on-year in October—exceeding the market expectation of 6.5% and accelerating from the 6.8% increase recorded in September. These figures have reinforced market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will tighten its monetary policy; it is widely anticipated that the BOJ will raise interest rates next month and continue its tightening cycle into next year.

Japanese Vice Minister of Finance Kamimura has warned against the rapid exchange rate fluctuations seen in recent days, as the USD/JPY pair climbs back toward the 160 level—a threshold that triggered official intervention twice earlier this year. The root cause of the pressure on the yen is the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan: "hotter-than-expected" U.S. CPI data has bolstered expectations for a December rate hike, while the 10-year Treasury yield, hovering near 5%, provides further support for this outlook. The 160 level carries significant two-way risk, which limits the upside potential for USD/JPY. Nevertheless, the interest rate differential remains the primary driver. From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has reached a key resistance zone near 160 on the daily chart—a level that aligns with the September 2 high of 160.40. Together, these points form a dense resistance band. Whether the pair can close above the 161.00 psychological mark will be crucial in determining whether the current corrective tone is easing and whether there is room for further upward movement. Downward support levels are found at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) near 158.99, followed by the 20-day SMA at 158.15; a daily close below these levels would likely trigger a deeper pullback.

For today, one might consider shorting the USD/JPY pair at 160.00, with a stop-loss at 160.20 and targets at 159.30 and 159.20.

EUR/USD

During early European trading on Thursday, the EUR/USD pair fell toward the 1.1060 level. The European Central Bank’s cautious stance has placed downward pressure on the euro against the U.S. dollar. European Central Bank policymaker Philip Lane stated that while energy prices may be falling, the ECB’s interest rate decisions will depend on the extent to which the recent surge in fuel costs feeds through into wages and other prices. Meanwhile, following a stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation report and comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, market bets for a 50-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in December have begun to gain traction. Waller indicated that he would support a 25-basis-point hike in December, but noted that he might push for a 50-basis-point increase if inflation data proves worse than anticipated. Traders are now awaiting the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October, due on Friday, for further clues regarding the interest rate trajectory. The headline PPI for October is expected to rise by 6.6% year-on-year, while the core PPI is projected to increase by 5.0% over the same period.

On the daily chart, EUR/USD continues to trade below all visible moving averages and volatility benchmarks, maintaining a clear bearish bias. The 9-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1170 remains well above the current price, reinforcing a constrained medium-term structure; additionally, the price is trading below the median line of the Bollinger Bands at 1.1182, suggesting persistent selling pressure near recent lows. The Relative Strength Index (14) has recovered to 36 but remains below the neutral 50 level, indicating only a modest improvement in momentum within an overall weak environment. On the upside, initial resistance lies in the 1.1090–1.1100 area, which encompasses the lower Bollinger Band and a psychological threshold. Sustained buying above this level could pave the way for further gains toward the 9-day SMA at 1.1170 and the Bollinger Band median line at 1.1182. On the downside, the 1.1000 round number serves as a key support level for this major currency pair. If trading continues below this level, the price may test the low of May 12, 2025, at 1.0951, followed by the low of May 27, 2025, at 1.0733.

For today, consider going long on the Euro at 1.1045; stop-loss: 1.1030, targets: 1.1080 and 1.1100.

WTI Spot Crude Oil

On Thursday, crude oil prices rose to approximately $89 per barrel, marking a second consecutive day of gains and a rebound from the ten-week low of $86 per barrel reached on November 10. Oil prices climbed after U.S. President Trump announced that the United States no longer needs a deal with Iran. This statement contrasts sharply with his remarks on Monday, when—following talks with the Prime Minister of Qatar—he claimed that the war was "effectively over from a military standpoint." Meanwhile, Iran has shown little willingness to soften its negotiating stance; Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that Tehran would not ship any enriched nuclear material out of the country. Despite the diplomatic uncertainty, crude oil supplies from the Middle East have seen a significant recovery. Saudi Arabia reported a 26% increase in production for October, and Iraq has also ramped up its output. Nevertheless, crude oil transport continues to rely on alternative shipping routes, ship-to-ship transfers, and military escorts. Maintain flexibility in your trading approach and continue to monitor developments, including reports of attacks on vessels in the Strait, official statements from the U.S. and Iran, and insights emerging from the Abu Dhabi talks. Look for entry points during rebounds—specifically when oil prices fail to decline despite bearish news—but avoid falling back into a "bull market" mindset. The primary risk scenario—an escalation of a U.S.-Iran conflict—has largely dissipated, which will also diminish the potential impact on broader asset classes. From a technical perspective, after breaking below the neckline, international oil prices formed a "single-pin" bottom (a sharp intraday reversal). The current movement is a rebound within a broader downtrend, characterized by a clear "double-top" bearish structure. For oil prices to return to a bull market, significant fundamental shifts are required, alongside a recovery to the 9-day simple moving average (SMA) at $89.24 and the key psychological level of $90.00; otherwise, the bearish trend remains intact. On the downside, watch the $84.00 level, followed by the critical psychological support level of $80.00.

For today, consider a long position in crude oil at $87.70, with a stop-loss at $87.55 and targets at $89.00 and $90.00.

Spot Gold

On Thursday, the price of gold fell by more than 2.5% to approximately $3,870 per ounce—a level not seen in several months. A strengthening U.S. dollar, expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, and rising oil prices all exerted downward pressure on gold. U.S. consumer inflation data for October, released on Tuesday, came in stronger than anticipated, pushing the dollar to a 19-month high and prompting traders to increase their bets on further interest rate hikes by the Fed. Meanwhile, a renewed rise in oil prices has intensified concerns regarding inflation. This follows remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who stated that the U.S. does not need a deal with Iran, and a shift in focus for Vice President J.D. Vance—moving his attention away from negotiations with Tehran toward domestic affairs. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market assigns a nearly 90% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, while the probability of a 50-basis-point hike has risen to approximately 10%—up from zero prior to the release of the latest inflation data.

For gold, the short-term downward pressure is unlikely to reverse immediately. However, given the structural support from central bank gold purchases and the fact that geopolitical risk premiums have not yet fully dissipated, a deep decline is less probable. Instead, the market is more likely to experience a period of "oscillating to build a base," awaiting a re-evaluation once the rate hike decision is finalized. From a technical perspective, spot gold—which plunged nearly 3% on Tuesday—rebounded intraday on Wednesday to reach $4,066.87, before retreating to close at $3,969. This indicates that the $4,000 psychological level has become a critical battleground between bulls and bears. While gold futures managed to close just above $4,000.50, the weakness in spot gold suggests that short-term downward pressure has not yet fully played out. Should the price decisively break below the support zone near $3,969 (Thursday’s low) and $3,870, it may test the $3,800 level. Conversely, if central bank buying and physical demand provide strong support below $4,000, gold could see a corrective rebound toward $4,043 (the middle line of the Bollinger Band), followed by the $4,100 psychological level, with further resistance located near $4,148 (the high from earlier in the week).

For today, consider going long on gold at $3,865, with a stop-loss at $3,860 and targets at $3,900 and $3,910.